The US, Europe, Australia and Israel are pitted against Russia and China.
By Brigadier (R) Asif Haroon
Each side wants to gain hegemony over the globe. The US camp is gripped with many economic challenges, while the opposing camp has lesser issues in comparison, and is gradually gaining ground to establish a new world order. The unending antagonism between the two warring camps is hurtling towards the third world war.
While the war in Ukraine is dragging on and inching towards a bigger conflict, the Gaza war, which is in its 11th month is raging with full ferocity, and the war has now expanded to Lebanon.
After killing and injuring a large number of Hizbollah leaders and activists through pager technology and bunker busting bombs as well as air strikes in southern Lebanon, Israel has now shifted its ground forces including tanks and artillery towards southern Lebanon, and is converting border villages into military cantonments. IDF has started the border war and Washington has given its approval.
Iran has been repeatedly provoked by Israel by attacking its embassy in Syria and killing IRGC leaders, killing Hamas chief Ismail Hanyia in Tehran, killing many Hizbollah leaders including the top leader Nasrullah in Lebanon. The naval warships, aircraft carriers of the USA and the UK are deployed in the Persian Gulf for the protection of Israel.
The Houthis, Hamas, Hizbollah and Iran have vowed to take revenge, but the Muslim world is watching the inferno of deaths and destruction from a far distance. The ME has become a powder keg and needs a matchstick to explode.
Sooner than later, there will be a joint coordinated response from Iran and its proxies, since Iran is well aware of the long term design of Israel to establish Greater Israel. It knows that soon Israel would launch a direct offensive against Iran to destroy its nuclear and missile sites.
If the combined response action takes place, it would lead to a bigger conflict since China and Russia would not remain silent spectators for long. Their economic stakes in the ME are at risk of getting jeopardized. The two eastern powers are not likely to join the war, but would certainly provide all kinds of sophisticated war weapons and munitions to Iran and its proxies.
Pakistan is mindful of the expanding war in the ME and its consequences upon its own security. It is already facing hostile India, near-hostile Afghanistan and pro-India Iran. Internally, it is facing multiple challenges in the form of political instability, weak economy at the mercy of IMF loan, social polarization, insecurity due to terrorism, fifth columnists, agents provocateurs and growing uncertainty.
PTI, which was ousted from power in Apr 2022 through a vote-of-no-confidence, is least concerned with the grave external situation and the wobbly internal situation which has pushed Pakistan to the edge of default. It is too deeply engrossed in its pursuits to recapture power and makes use of its social media networks for smear campaigns, and holds protests, rallies, public gatherings and sit-ins to stir chaos and to fail the ruling govt. It misses no opportunity to defame the govt, the institutions and Pak Army.
The hottest issue for PTI’s social media is the episode of donuts bakery. The incident has been hyped to demean the reputation of CJP Faiz Essa. The liberal class made a beeline in front of the bakery to buy as many donuts in order to eulogise the salesman who dared to curse Essa and is now in hiding. The 20 second video that had been preplanned, is going viral and is helping the depressed Youthias to smile, dance and raise victory slogans.
A lot of tears are being shed over the arrest of an 81 year old woman, who had travelled a long distance to take part in the PTI rally in Pindi. She was in a scintillating mood and waving victory signs.
For her, it was a good outing to have fun. She has been participating in the rallies since long. What should the people in their advanced age be doing in the remaining few years, or months of life?
Should they not be spending every minute in praying and seeking Allah’s blessings and doing noble deeds in preparation for the life hereafter? Or guiding the younger people to remain away from the satanic path and advising them to get involved in constructive work, rather than in negativity, hooliganism and creating chaos.
The law of land doesn’t differentiate between genders, ages, and those who are sick, disabled and in wheelchairs. The law enforcers are duty bound to maintain law and order. They spare none, who break rule of law and become part of the rioters and anarchists, whose sole mission is to make Pakistan lawless and ungovernable.
It is an old ploy of the anarchists to cover up their misdeeds behind the shield of girls, women, old people, acting as the vanguard force, and then trying to gain sympathy of the people when lathi charged and shelled by the police, and arrested. The law breakers and abusers are not censured. Instead they are heroised. The law enforcers are painted as monsters. What a dichotomy!
Another story in circulation is about ex- Commissioner Rawalpindi Liaqat Ali Chatha, who has been in detention since his shady press conference last Feb. He had alleged that in the last elections, he had been forced to manipulate results in his division under his watch. Reportedly, he has now admitted that he was influenced by Lt Gen Faiz Hamid to give the statement, and in return he was promised to be made the President in Nov. He is ready to appear as a witness in the trial of Faiz Hamid.
The other catchy happening is the cranky outbursts of Ali Amin Gandapur, who is acting like a vagabond and a hooligan rather than CM KP. He has become the favourite of jailed Imran Khan, who is unhappy with the performance of Gohar and others. Marwat is down with COVID virus.
Egged on by IK, Gandapur has been constantly threatening the federal govt, Punjab govt, Punjab police, and has become rebellious. He has become so obsessed with Punjab that he has forgotten his primary duties in KP, which is engulfed in high intensity terrorism and in corrupt practices. In Aug, 29 terrorist attacks took place in KP, claiming 25 lives, and this trend continued in Sept.
The writ of the provincial govt in southern parts of the province (DIK, Lakki Marwat, Bannu, Waziristan and Kohat) has almost been snatched by TTP. In Kurram, inter-tribal sectarian clashes have claimed 41 lives and injuries to over 90.
A diplomatic convoy of ambassadors from 12 countries en route to Kalam valley narrowly survived IED blast. Swat is at the brink of slipping back into the era of Fazlullah, who had made a state within a state from 2007 to. 2009.
The security situation in Baluchistan is equally worrisome. After the dastardly attacks by BLA on 25/26 Aug, another gruesome attack was carried out this month in which 11 laborers from Multan were killed. The targets of BLA are security forces, Chinese working in CPEC and non-Baloch people. The chief objective is to disrupt CPEC.
Soon after the US Congress and Senate members followed by the UK parliamentarians spoke in support of IK, Israel came out openly in support of incarcerated IK. Three articles published by an Israeli media gave a handle to IK bashers to bash him.
Now when Pakistan’s sunken economy has begun to show signs of recovery and progress, as was the case in 2014/15, the power hungry PTI, having so far failed to topple the Govt and regain power after flexing and using its muscle power for about 15 months, is again primed to hold series of public gatherings from 02 Oct onwards in various cities of Punjab.
It is in continuation to its highly toxic rallies at Isbd, Lahore and Pindi, and on the pattern adopted form Apr 2022 to Apr 2023, which culminated into 9 May 2023 wide scale vandalism. October rally at D Chowk Isbd which the PTI to prolong till the release of IK from jail is, however, designed to disrupt the holding of SCO meeting in Isbd and the visit of President Xi Jinping to Isbd. It is similar to PTI’s sit-in at D Chowk in July 2014, which had succeeded in postponing China’s president visit in Sept 2014 to sign the historic CPEC agreement.
JI has also decided to start a country wide protest movement in support of the Palestinians, while the lawyers community is also itching to start a massive movement to defend the independence of the judiciary.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman is playing monkey tricks and keeping both sides hopeful, and on the tenterhooks.
The govt is claiming to have acquired two-thirds majority and intends to pass the constitutional amendments package from the two houses by 10/11 Oct. Probably, its hopes are pinned on a chunk of 41 PTI candidates who took part in the elections as independents and then joined SIC. All are reportedly ready to jump the ship.
Yet another lava which is bubbling is the judicial crisis. There is a distinct division between the pro-PTI and pro-govt judges and lawyers community. The Bar Counsels are at odds with each other. They have rejected the promulgation of the ordinance amending SC Practice & Procedure 2023 Act, terming it as bad law.
The clash between the supreme court judges, and the power struggle of the 8 SC judges backed by six IHC judges against the ECP, Parliament and the Executive have reached a dangerous stage. The judges are not adhering to the code of conduct. Instead of showing restraint and promoting harmony, they are creating disharmony by getting involved in public controversy. They are the major cause of delayed justice and causing pain to the litigants.
PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto has given sound lashings to the PTI, judges and the lawyers, and has firmly stated that no earthly power can block the establishment of constitutional court.
Social media, which remains unaccountable and unregulated, is glorifying justice Mansoor Ali Shah and his like-minded judges, and badmouthing CJP Faiz Essa. After the Jayala culture which made the society indisciplined and unethical, IK’s cultish culture has ruined the moral fabric of the society. The overall political and security situation is getting messier after every passing day.
The writer is a retd Brig Gen, war veteran, defence, security & political analyst, international columnist author of five books, patron-in-chief CDS Think Tank, Administrator Fact Check Think Tank, ex-Chairman TFP Think Tank.
